Guess I'm not that bearish on the DVC market. I think the west coast market will always carry a premium over the east coast due to only having 2 resorts and likely only ever having 3 in the near future. Disneyland has way more outside pressure from all sides with many of them technically being closer than the Disneyland Hotel. Yet Disney still fills them at premium prices nearly as high as the luxury resorts in Florida. Apparently they have no issue filling the Pixar hotel at like 700-800 a night. This essentially translates over to the DVC side and thats why VGC is such an anomaly. I think VDH will come along with it too.My take is similar to the others that have replied. I think that VDH will drag down VGC but that the gap will be MUCH larger than you are anticipating. I see VDH resale long term in the AKV-BLT range. The resale restrictions make it a single resort contract, and the location is significantly worse in that it makes hotels on Harbor and Katella reasonable comparison points (except for @AstroBlasters who would NEVER), even if there are elements of VDH that are substantially better.
I think VGC dipping into the very high 100s while we have this glut of contracts is possible as the worst case scenario, but I think if it does, the glut of contracts will clear up very quickly. I think an $80-$100 per point gap between the resorts is very possible, but I also think the existence of VDH contracts precludes VGC from ever being 60% more than any other DVC resort again.
Doesn't matter that the Westin is literally half the price. Wife has to be in the bubble so we stay in the bubble.
